Mind traps

Mind traps: a chapter of the Thinking Clearly Book, with the mind traps and tricks that are worth knowing by name.

10 cards · Science

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Each Zap teaches up to 5 new cards, so you learn the deck a few at a time.

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  • Noticing only what fits what you already believe

    Show answer: Noticing only what fits what you already believe

    Confirmation bias

    Learn more: We seek and trust evidence that supports our view, so look for what would prove you wrong.

  • The first number you hear sways your estimate

    Show answer: The first number you hear sways your estimate

    Anchoring

    Learn more: Even a random starting number pulls later guesses toward it, so set your own figure first.

  • Sticking with something because of what you've spent

    Show answer: Sticking with something because of what you've spent

    Sunk cost fallacy

    Learn more: Money or time already spent is gone either way; only future costs and benefits should decide.

  • 'I knew it all along', once you know what happened

    Show answer: 'I knew it all along', once you know what happened

    Hindsight bias

    Learn more: Once we know the outcome, we forget how uncertain it felt, and judge past decisions unfairly.

  • Judging risk by how easily examples come to mind

    Show answer: Judging risk by how easily examples come to mind

    Availability heuristic

    Learn more: Vivid, recent or dramatic events stick in memory, so we overrate them and underrate everyday risks.

About this topic

Psychologists call them cognitive biases: predictable ways our judgement goes wrong. We notice what fits our beliefs, lean on the first number we hear, keep going because of what we've already spent, and assume we knew it all along. These shortcuts saved our ancestors time, but in a world of news, ads and big decisions they can cost us. Nobody is immune, experts included, but knowing the names makes the traps much easier to notice, in yourself as well as in others.

This is a chapter of the Thinking Clearly Book. Each card asks one question, with a hint before you answer and a short reason after. Once you know most of this chapter, the next one starts arriving in your Daily Zap.

All 10 cards

  1. Noticing only what fits what you already believe

    Confirmation bias

    Learn more: We seek and trust evidence that supports our view, so look for what would prove you wrong.

  2. The first number you hear sways your estimate

    Anchoring

    Learn more: Even a random starting number pulls later guesses toward it, so set your own figure first.

  3. Sticking with something because of what you've spent

    Sunk cost fallacy

    Learn more: Money or time already spent is gone either way; only future costs and benefits should decide.

  4. 'I knew it all along', once you know what happened

    Hindsight bias

    Learn more: Once we know the outcome, we forget how uncertain it felt, and judge past decisions unfairly.

  5. Judging risk by how easily examples come to mind

    Availability heuristic

    Learn more: Vivid, recent or dramatic events stick in memory, so we overrate them and underrate everyday risks.

  6. Only seeing the winners, and missing the failures

    Survivorship bias

    Learn more: Studying only successes hides those who did the same things and failed, so the lesson can be wrong.

  7. Beginners overrating how good they are

    Dunning–Kruger effect

    Learn more: With little skill it's hard to spot your own mistakes; as you learn more, confidence often drops.

  8. One good trait making us assume the others

    Halo effect

    Learn more: A single strong impression colours how we judge everything else about a person or a product.

  9. Believing something because lots of others do

    Bandwagon effect

    Learn more: Popularity feels like proof, but a crowd can be wrong; ask what the evidence says instead.

  10. '90% survive' sounding better than '10% die'

    Framing effect

    Learn more: How a choice is worded changes what we pick, even when the facts are exactly the same.

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